AMEC Geomatrix has extensive experience in conducting expert elicitations, which are guided by formal, structured and documented processes for identifying and quantifying uncertainties with a goal of representing the views of the informed scientific community. Expert judgement is used in any technical assessment, but often is implicit and undocumented. In a formal expert elicitation a range of scientific views are represented, uncertainties represented by the diverse technical interpretations are fully and properly incorporated, and the process and results are completely documented. Our experience includes expert elicitations conducted for a wide variety of reasons and at a variety of scales, both in the United States and in Europe. Some of these studies have resulted in probabilistic hazard analyses for nuclear facilities where seismic or volcanic hazards are potentially significant contributors to risk. Our experience also includes studies that have been used to provide perspectives on modelling and data collection activities that may help characterize and reduce uncertainties for issues ranging from groundwater flow and transport to corrosion rates of metal alloys.
KEY SERVICES- Develop an expert elicitation plan
- Select and retain expert panel members
- Conduct workshops
- Elicit and document expert assessments
- Ensure full incorporation of uncertainties
- Compute and/or analyze results
- Document project process and results
- Probabilistic hazard analyses
- Uncertainty modelling
- Decision analysis
- Prioritization
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